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OCR (Official Cash Rate of New Zealand) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and kinoparks.ml OCR is a fairly conventional tool . Al Jadeed Exchange LLC launched its operations at January with corporate office at Ruwi and now stands deeply rooted in the spirit of excellence as one of the largest financial service houses in the Sultanate of Oman.
In Japan, the flash PMI hit a seven-month low of The Bank of Japan retained its accommodative monetary stance. There is little doubt that the local economy is struggling. First quarter GDP numbers showed that the economy shrunk for a second consecutive quarter Moody's downgraded South Africa's sovereign risk rating by one notch although it is still investment grade and retained a negative outlook.
Seven out of every 10 respondents were negative about prevailing business conditions. But, on a slightly more positive note, retail sales improved slightly to an annual growth rate of 1. Globally, while the economic growth outlook remains positive overall there seems to be a slight loss of momentum and flattening yield curves suggest some concern regarding the longer-term growth outlook. Locally, politics continues to dominate the outlook.
Business and consumer confidence is low and is likely to retard economic growth. Further credit rating downgrades also remain a distinct possibility.
Despite these developments, the global backdrop has proved supportive and both the rand and bond yields have proved to be relatively resilient. On the global front we are relatively neutral on our stance towards growth assets. Policy uncertainty, rising global interest rates and a trend towards nationalism and protectionism prevent a more upbeat assessment at this stage. Turning to the local equity market, and while valuations have improved slightly from an implied risk premium perspective following recent weakness, the market once again faces headwinds from a constrained economic environment.
The bond market notwithstanding, being relatively well anchored by a down-trending inflation rate is also likely to be hampered by the threat of further credit rating downgrades.
The opportunity cost of being overweight in cash cash yields are high remains relatively low at present. On the currency front we see gradual depreciation although risks to forecasts are significant on both sides of the forecast given the fluid political dynamic and substantial event risk.
Offshore investment continues to retain investment merit from a diversification perspective. Uncertainty often heralds new opportunities and highlights interesting trends. This is particularly true in the wealth management space where current global and local volatility and unpredictability are shaping general planning strategies for wealthier individuals. Currently, South African wealth planners are seeing an uptick in demand for taking funds offshore, as well as a greater focus on diversification.
But, in a world where uncertainty is widespread across regions, how this balances out is of particular importance within a wellconstructed wealth plan; one which takes into account exposure to a variety of currencies, products and asset classes.
While this is an interesting trend, other ultra-high-networth individuals might also be making plans to set up a home away from home, and enjoy part of the year in South Africa and the rest abroad. Another theme impacting the wealth management space is longevity. Fortunately, the internet has provided a platform to highlight some of these risks and increased the overall awareness around longevity, regulation and investment options.
For the industry this has really changed the way things are done, admits Arnold. With significant and rapid changes in the legislative environment, this is particularly true currently. In fact, Arnold sees this is as a significant value-add for the wealth manager role. On the asset management side he notes a move internationally into passive investments, for example into exchange traded funds, and away from active management.
In South Africa this trend is still gaining traction since "the local active management industry has been more successful than global counterparts in delivering active returns, which has stemmed the tide of passive implementation", Arnold notes.
While the big players locally remain active managers, this is a shift to note, he believes, and it presents interesting opportunities to blend the two approaches into one meaningful strategy. Again, understanding some of the unintended consequences of passive investing needs to be understood, especially in the context of underlying share exposure as a percentage of the index.
By and large Arnold believes the wealth industry is responding to current uncertainty by showing greater sophistication in how it develops solutions for clients, and treats clients. He feels the focus on client costs and experience will continue to be vital in an environment where investment returns are under pressure.
Increasingly legislation is also pushing in the direction of a more consultative environment, where clients have a better understanding of the costs. This is a positive move, believes Arnold, and one "which highlights more and better choices for individuals on their wealth journey". South Africa's financial media is a barometer of prevailing sentiment in the market. So it is telling that, in recent weeks, we've been treated to a bevy of headlines like 'How to take your rands offshore', courtesy of Finweek; 'What you should know before investing offshore' Moneyweb ; and 'Exercise care offshore, say experts' Business Day.
Fuelling this focus are political and economic concerns, heightened by recent ratings downgrades and leadership re-shuffles. And, for many, this means looking offshore. Such diversification is not only possible but is eminently doable in today's enabling legislative and technological environment. For example, using FNB's online platform, it's possible to go online and open a Global Account at the click of a button, in order to start saving in the currency of your choice.
FNB also offers offshore banking via the Channel Islands branch. The options and avenues are clearly there. It's the 'how' which often trips people up, admits Robertson. The first thing to remember, she stresses, is that there really are very few limits.
Meaning that "it's largely about the mechanism you choose to use". For example, investors can make use of the offshore investment limits applicable to an institutional investor, like Ashburton. The first step is speaking to your wealth manager about the various investment options available.
Going this route allows you to invest locally without being restricted by any individual allowances, and effectively access the offshore markets indirectly.
Ashburton, like other institutional investors, would be the principle holder of the offshore asset; so while the local investor - be it an individual, trust or company - would effect a rand investment, the performance would be determined by the offshore markets. However, by going this route individuals and entities can invest any amount, provided it is in line with the institutional investment limits, which are usually substantial when compared to a single entity or individual.
Of course, for those investors seeking full diversification out of rands, there are several options. For instance, they have the ability to use the individual R1 million single discretionary allowance, which can be used for a number of reasons, including travel and foreign investment.
But, warns Robertson, be very careful not to overreach the R1 million cut-off by using, for example, your credit card abroad while travelling, since every amount swiped counts towards your allowance. The R10 million foreign investment allowance, for which individual investors must obtain tax clearance, is another option for those looking for exposure at this level. And FNB is able to assist clients in obtaining the required tax clearance required. Given the various options to access the offshore markets, directly and indirectly, "wealthier clients will often use a mixture of approaches", says Robertson.
Once you understand the mechanisms you can customise the mix to your personal situation. It is all about flexibility and being in control as an individual.
But you have to play within the rules. FNB's role is to help you determine the best options open to you. While online is often the first point of contact, your private banker can really assist you by streamlining the process and ensuring the right experts are in your corner. A diversified share portfolio, incorporating a good balance of both local and offshore listed companies, is just one way in which concerned investors can protect themselves against the uncertainty surrounding the current South African economic environment.
For both new entrants to the world of share investing, as well as established old hands, a solid portfolio often comes down to the right mix. To borrow from another sage piece of investment advice, having all your eggs in one basket can be short-sighted. SA Inc only , you need to have high conviction that your strategy is correct, since an incorrect decision can have a very negative impact on your portfolio," says Rossiter.
Effectively, you can hedge your portfolio against rand depreciation and a stagnant economy in two ways, explains Rossiter. And you could also invest in numerous Exchange Traded Funds, which give you exposure to specific foreign stock exchange indices consisting of different baskets of foreign shares.
The other way is the direct route, where you move capital offshore and invest in international stocks directly. You can achieve this by using your personal offshore allowances: If you have more capital than this, or would like to invest in the name of a company or local trust, you could also consider using a financial entity's asset transfer capacity.
With recent volatility in the currency market, driven by both political and economic influences, investors have been inclined to explore the option of taking funds offshore. There is a big case to be made for diversifying your assets into the global economy, into global industries many of which are not represented in the South African market and global companies.
Of course, if one lives and works in South Africa, you still need to fund and finance your lifestyle, which means having investments in rands, which are easily accessible. Finally, when it comes to shares and sectors which investors might keep on their radar, Rossiter believes commodities still have something to offer. Stocks in this sector include Anglo American and other diversified miners. But this would be a long-term trade. An old theme, which is still valid, is to keep an eye on South African companies expanding into the rest of the continent or further abroad; companies which have really diversified their income streams.
Each July the financial services sector amplifies its conversations about savings. As a nation we bemoan our poor savings culture, we run national campaigns, we discuss the merits of saving, we ruminate that most small businesses are started on the back of savings.
We talk a lot. FNB Savings and Cash Investments aims to bridge the gap between talk and action by focusing on solving specific savings and investment-related needs on a day-to-day basis. This hinges on a goal-based approach, which takes into account the savings objectives of every client. For example, if you are saving towards a longerterm goal - like an anniversary, a wedding or a coming of age party - your needs are different to short-term aims like a holiday or a deposit on a new car. Ilse Smuts, Head of Marketing at FNB Savings and Cash Investments, explains that individuals today are spoilt for choice when it comes to the range of savings and cash investments products on the market.
Assessing which savings product is best for you, often comes down to life stages. Small adjustments are, of course only natural based on the stage of your life. And while wealthier clients might have more buffers against these cycles, the average client is likely to be more impacted by credit hikes and the increased cost of living.
The tried and tested approach to building a savings culture starts with paying yourself first, or, more particularly, paying into your savings first.
This builds a mentality of saving which makes a massive difference to an individual's financial wellbeing over time. The products you select and the 'how' you go about saving opens up myriad options, which many need help navigating. Generally, in the lower end of the market most savings are in smaller cash amounts, but ultra-high-networth individuals can easily invest from R or a few million. So they can move into higher income potential products, says Smuts.
And you need to review these on an annual basis," says Smuts. FNB Savings and Cash investments covers the gambit of savings products for every individual's needs. Say you are a young professional, just getting a foot on the corporate ladder and earning a salary for the first time.
The Money Maximiser account is particularly attractive to those with R to start with, says Smuts. Money Maximiser also enables instant access to your investment. You can take out money anytime making it ideal in the event of unexpected expenses or opportunities. And there is more good news: For more short-term investment options, there are also seven-day and day notice products, where you have to place notice in order to withdraw.
And fixed deposits are particularly popular with the senior market, says Smuts. Fixed deposits are ideal for enhancing your retirement income, if you choose to have interest paid out monthly to boost your income on retirement. If you don't put the money aside, you'll never gain the reward. The offer is valid for travel to Europe and North America between 1 June and 31 March , affording ample time for eBucks customers to stake their claim to this select offering. Furthermore, the discount excludes all taxes.
To quality, a minimum payment of eB50 per ticket is required for all Business Class flights. The question now is which dynamic European or American destination is best suited to help you shed the South African winter blues and put a spring in your step?
If you've never visited the second-largest Frenchspeaking city in the world, then is the ideal year to soak up the history and charm of Canada's second most populous city, after Toronto.
This year marks the th anniversary of the city, which was originally called Ville-Marie, or City of Mary, by the French colonisers. As you'd expect, history abounds from the impressive Notre- Dame Basilica to the old port, the Pointe-a-Calliere Museum, the Musee d'art contemporain de Montreal, Montreal Museum of Fine Arts, and countless street markets, boat tours, walks and biking trails.
But modern Montréal is never far behind; offering an enchanting mixture of old and new. With marking a historic birthday for the city 17 May to be precise , Montréal is pulling out all the stops with more than events taking place over the year from open-air museums and expos, to massive street food markets, indigenous art and culture nights, plays, pop-up galleries and installations.
Make this the year you fall in love with Montréal. According to the song, New York really is a 'helluva town'; there really are experiences lined up around every corner. Even regulars to this evergreen city never fail to see the charm in a visit to Central Park or a harbour tour taking in the iconic Statue of Liberty, or simply to marvel at buildings like St Patrick's Cathedral, the Empire State Building or the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
If traditional sight-seeing is not your thing, but music is, then consider some pretty awesome concerts taking place over the next few months in the Big Apple. There is also a bevy of Broadway shows to gorge on, including the hysterical Book of Mormon, classics like Hello Dolly! Entry may be free, but the event is unforgettable.
If your stay happens to cross over into July, then hang around for the 4th of July independence celebrations, which means fireworks, hot dogs, picnics and barbeques galore. The popular Holland Festival is hosted in Netherlands runs from 3 June to 25 June across the Netherlands, making Amsterdam a delightful tourist hot-spot over the period. Numerous events are scheduled for free across public spaces during the month. In , the Festival unveiled one of its most packed programmes in the year history of the event, featuring music, opera, theatre, visual arts and modern dance, film and architecture.
The Festival affords lesser-known artists to perform side-by-side with establish performers. The conductor will be Raphael Pichon, from France, and the visual artwork is being orchestrated by Belgian Berlinde de Bruyckere; highlighting the cross-border appeal of the event. In between you might want to sneak in a visit to the recently-restored Rijksmuseum, being sure to take in Rembrandt's Night Watch, or the Van Gogh or Hermitage Amsterdam museums.
Can there be anything more charming than summer in Paris? For cycling lovers a well-timed trip to Paris could also mean indulging in a spot of European sight-seeing for the th edition of the epic Tour de France, taking place from July The world-famous event starts this year in the German city of Dusseldorf, before heading into Belgium and Luxembourg and then back into France.
The Tour promises to be even more dramatic and exhausting for the peloton than before, with Frances five mountain ranges featured over the course - was the last time riders tackled all five imposing mountains in one Tour.
For those lucky enough to be in Paris for the final stage of the Tour, the sight of world-class riders clattering down the Champs Elysees will be truly unforgettable. What investors need to know about 'globesity'. What you need to know about Bitcoin and blockchain. What does the rate cut mean for government bonds? Don't fall prey to cyber criminals. In the driver's seat, courtesy of your smartphone.
It's like WhatsApp - only better. Coffee and Chocolate Expo Cape Town Prince Albert Leesfees Ficksburg Cherry Festival Technology continues to make an indelible mark on the world in which we live.
It has enabled disruptive technologies like Uber, Airbnb and cryptocurrencies which change the way we travel, book accommodation and transact across borders. And it has driven the creation of Secure Chat, the closest and most convenient way for you to chat to a dedicated team of Support Bankers any time of the day or night. Across all these innovations, however, the importance of secure channels and ongoing protection of your personal information and digital devices has never been more critical.
So, in this newsletter, we highlight not only the possibilities but also look to arm you with essential tips to ensure your cyber security. In the wake of a 25 basis point drop in the repo rate, we take this opportunity to examine what this means for bonds.
And, with the impact of megatrends firmly on our radar, we introduce a new segment on investment trends and what these political, social, environmental and demographic game changers might mean for the investment universe.
We get the ball rolling with a look at 'globesity'. As always, we include a segment from eBucks Lifestyle and included a "What's on? We hope you enjoy the features assembled for this newsletter and welcome any feedback and ideas. You wouldn't put your money into a new product, company or sector without asking some key questions, would you? Well, neither would your financial advisor. This is why so much of our time at FNB Private Wealth goes into dissecting long-term political, environmental, social and demographic 'megatrends'; developments which impact your long-term investment returns.
While others are more general. All, however, have the potential to change the way we live, work and invest.
In forthcoming newsletters we'll take the time to outline a number of these megatrends, giving our views and insights into the possible implications. From a South African perspective many of these global developments are likely to impact our society too, some for the better and others less so.
For example, globesity - the increase in obesity around the world - is just one example of a ticking time bomb with a possible upside for astute investors. Research from Wits University's Priceless research unit in tells us that obesity-related diseases, like heart disease and diabetes, are now responsible for This, says Marx, makes globesity of particular importance to the health of South Africa's citizens and also impacts healthcare resources, pharmaceutical companies and medical aids.
But it's not all bad news. And while fast food is still a megatrend for this group, their choices are more health conscious, for example shopping at Woolies or Kauai or using systems like dinner kit delivery service UCook. These healthier habits are increasing the uptake of wearables too, she explains, highlighting the likes of Garmin and Fitbit fitness trackers, which are, in turn, providing benefits for the insurance industry.
Adding these devices into the medical aid mix also makes consumers 'stickier' when it comes to retaining and using memberships to fitness and health clubs.
This, says Marx, also keeps up demand for athletic-leisure wear, a bandwagon onto which the likes of Adidas, Reebok and Under Armour have been quick to jump onto in recent years. This specialisation also extends to the type of clothing that fitness fanatics need for yoga versus Crossfit versus spinning.
On the other end of the spectrum are South Africans for whom fast foods - not a Fitbit - represent an 'aspirational' lifestyle choice and, of course, there are also those who find it cheaper to eat convenience foods that to buy fresh produce. After unpacking these divergent themes, the skill comes down to carefully distinguishing between a trend and a fad.
Fads don't change the way people live, says Marx, but trends like globesity do. It's this approach that keeps FNB's investing thinking one step ahead of the pack.
Despite the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum, these digital currencies - which operate independently of any central bank - have surged into our collective financial lexicon in recent months on the back of uncertainty over issues like the United States and North Korea, Brexit and rising global tensions, says John Joyce, Portfolio Manager at Ashburton Investments.
The value of Bitcoin lies in the fact that just 21 million Bitcoins will only ever 'be mined', so, like gold, supply is limited. This gives them value. Some, like the Chinese central bank, argue that while Bitcoin's value makes it an asset, it is still not a currency and that regulation is needed. I do not see it as a currency. If you think Bitcoin would be as safe as the euro or the dollar, you have to take responsibility for it. Equally important is the vital technology behind the likes of Bitcoin.
Blockchain technology, which was originally devised as the system behind Bitcoin, is essentially a public ledger of information duplicated thousands of times over a network of computers. The data isn't stored in one place, rather it is hosted on thousands of computers at the same time.
Farzam Ehsani, Blockchain Lead for RMB, is a recognised authority on blockchain technology and believes it will be as transformative to the global financial system as the internet has been to the world. Other assets can also use these consensus protocols and technology. It's because blockchain data is not centralised and can't be hacked or disrupted at a single point, that it's become such a sought-after technology. Cuban might not rate Bitcoin, but he believes blockchain is a "foundation platform from which great applications can be built".
Ehsani points to the home buying process as one sector that is inevitably going to be disrupted by blockchain. To me this is not some crazy theory, this will be reality in the not too distant future. It is just a matter of time.
Similarly, Joyce notes that the emergence of cryptocurrencies could be a significant disruptor to the banking system as we know it. While banks are unlikely to disappear as a result, being cut out of the loop will have adverse consequences for the traditional system. This is why banking groups like FirstRand are quick to investigate the potential of blockchain. And it would probably cost a grand total of less than R10 regardless of the amount being sent. In addition, it doesn't touch a single financial institution to get there.
This can be viewed as a threat to financial institutions but can also be seen as a tremendous opportunity as costs come down and volumes increase. Banks need to start thinking creatively about this new paradigm," he says. Right now, however, making a cryptocurrency mainstream looks unlikely, believes Joyce, citing the limited supply as just one hindrance.
But the change is coming and FirstRand is working to understand the disruptions as well as the opportunities. That's what the blockchain does.
When the South African Reserve Bank took the market by surprise with a 25 basis point repo rate cut in July it handed indebted consumers a fillip; a reduction in their monthly home loan and credit card payments. The general advice from the experts was, however, not to squander this relief, but rather to save through these uncertain times and build a nest egg.
But, while the average investor might be concerned with their property bond, there is another bond which is also impacted by a rate decrease, and that's government bonds. These have more of an impact on you and your investment portfolio than you might think; forming as they do a healthy proportion of any pension fund. So what does a rate cut mean for these bonds? According to Justin Louw, Relationship Manager at FNB Securities, the 'bonds ' fact we all need to know is that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.
And when interest rates go down, bond prices go up. This means that our clients who have bonds in their portfolios or are invested in multi-asset funds could benefit," says Louw. This may seem contradictory, because South Africa's sovereign debt has been downgraded to sub-investment this year, but, explains Louw, the market had priced in this downgrade possibility well ahead of time and had already reacted to ongoing South African political uncertainty and instability.
So, even during this period of doubt and uncertainty, government bonds have delivered solid returns. The rand strength came from an improvement in the current account balance and the carry trade.
Because inflation has come down, the South African Reserve Bank has a bit of room to cut interest rates. The carry trade can be explained by the real yield differentials at play, explains Louw. Assuming South African inflation averages 5. That explains why investors are coming here. They are looking for real yield.
While it has been beneficial for bond prices and the rand, foreign ownership of South African bonds is also a concern because it could have a massive volatility effect if foreigners sell. The opposite is also true so it pushes the value around," says Louw. In summary, FNB expects further volatility in bonds and the only way to avoid this is if you hold them to maturity.
He also notes that, as a fund manager, "you cannot afford not to have a bond strategy for both sides of the coin on the table", but you do need to constantly consider the risk and timing given this volatility. There has been some negative sentiment around bonds lately, with the likes of Coronation shedding South African government bonds in its flagship Balanced Plus fund earlier this year.
In most part this was because they regarded bonds as being too strong and, in their view, the price did not reflect the risk inherent in the market due to the political uncertainty South Africa is currently experiencing, explains Louw. We also didn't think it would price in further downgrades, so we lightened our long exposure.
But that was before the surprise interest rate cut. So now, if bonds do weaken again, Louw notes that "we might push our weighting in bonds up as they are still attractive, not necessarily for individuals from a tax perspective, because the distribution is considered as interest, but if you have a pension fund then bonds are attractive due to current yields.
At this point you get a percent or so higher return than in the money market, but note this does involve putting capital at risk compared with, for example, a money market.
With FNB Securities projecting at least one more rate decrease this year - potentially in October or November - and possibly another in early , we are in the throes of what is expected to be a shallow interest rate decline cycle of around 75 basis points. This bodes well for existing holders of bonds.
If you use a computer, a tablet or a mobile device, but you don't back up, have antivirus, a secure password and are not actively trying to protect your online identity, then read on because you are not alone.
Cyber or Mr Robot, it is a very real threat in the real world and, as such, it's important to take active steps to protect yourself, your data and your identity. Kovelin Naidoo, the man they call 'Mr Robot' at FNB Private Wealth, may be an expert in this field, but he still stands by some basic steps we can all take to ensure we are a lot safer in the cyber world.
Some of these are just good digital hygiene, he says, like keeping all your devices up to date in terms of software. When you log in you can download a licence key for Trend Micro. As long as it is up to date. Once you have these protections in place, then you need to be brutal with your password selection.
The days of birthdays, names and star signs are over, today's hackers are wise to these tricks and will break through them quickly, so it is essential to ensure that you have a relatively strong password in place, particularly for your online banking.
Naidoo suggests that the minimum password length should be eight characters and it should be relatively complex. So we recommend you use password phrases - like 'My dog's name is Bingo! Ensure you have applied this change to all your sensitive information, emails and applications. Social media accounts do have additional security and privacy settings, so enabling these also ensures the security and privacy of your information. But, even if you've done all the right things, never fall in to the trap of being complacent.
Cybercrime often features well-coordinated attacks and FNB works closely with law enforcement to try and identify syndicates. But there are also individuals operating in this space, says Naidoo. And the barriers to entry there are low. Do so at least once a month. But, ideally, you've put in place behaviours and security which keep you and your data safe. This includes being suspicious of any emails and attachments which seem unusual.
So scrutinise links and attachments. But outside of that App there is a whole ecosystem which we can't control. For example, SIM swaps are an increasingly popular technique which cybercriminals use to gain access to your personal data. But, using the Banking App, allows the bank to pick up anomalous and suspicious behaviour which we can proactively block or request you to confirm via a trusted mechanism.
That's it to legitimately do a SIM swap," explains Naidoo. Identity theft is a big issue in the cyber world, but it transcends the digital sphere.
If you run a small business then also ensure that this security awareness extends through the organisation. If hackers can't get to you, then they will try those close to you, such as your PA or your children. These are actually enormous ideas in regarding blogging. You have touched some pleasant points here.
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